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Analysis of the One-Child policy in China: Economic success or failure
Since the days of Thomas Malthus, population growth has been a curiosity for economists. Over the course of 200 years, it seems as though the 'science' of population and its effects on economic growth, however, has not risen to a much higher level. Was Malthus right in his doomsday predictions? Will mother nature control the world's population if we do not take the initiative? Looking to the rampant spread of AIDS in Africa, the region with the highest population growth rate in the world, the answer seems clear. Or what about the various flus and plagues that worked to keep Europe's population at bay over the past several centuries? Some countries have chosen to learn from history and Malthus' teachings and used preventative checks to prevent nature from intervening. Here, China is probably the most notorious example. In 1979, China enacted a one-child only policy that was aimed at curbing its rapid rate of population growth. This paper analyzes the effects of this policy and finds that it has resulted in positive returns to per capita GDP. While it is impossible to isolate the effects of the one-child policy from the other components of the country's economic reforms that were launched in 1978, it logically follows that reductions in the growth rate of the country's population has been an important contributor to economic growth. Most importantly, the policy has helped to educate the populace about controlling population levels and paved the way for the process of demographic transition. There is evidence that people are now voluntarily having fewer children, realizing that it is more conducive to economic development. Whatever the precise economic successes are, this shift in societal perceptions is the policy's most important achievement. 50 pgs. bibliography lists 22 sources.
